Book Log 2016 #4: The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver

I know I'm late to reading this - it was pretty much required in the aftermath of Five Thirty Eight's impressive performance in predicting the results of the 2012 Presidential election - but it's another presidential election year, so I figured it was a good time to catch up.

As much as I enjoy the Five Thirty Eight website, I struggled to get through this book. Partly it was from the explanations of the math and science behind forecasting - it doesn't require specialized knowledge, but there are the occasional points where it would help - and partly it was not having more of a discussion of political analysis and polling. There is plenty of that, of course, but there are also discussions of weather forecasting, poker, and other topics that are used to illustrate points and demonstrate how people get in the way of what the data is telling them. So in some respect, the problem with the book for me was that it wasn't the book I wanted it to be. Which is really my problem.

In any case, if this sort of thing interests you, it's worth picking up, if for no other reason than to get some grounding in Bayseian analysis, which underpins much (if not all) of Silver's work and, increasingly, the work of other forecasters.

(Popsugar Reading Challenge: A New York Times best-seller)