07 September 2002

Today I rip off some others and give my NFL predictions, one game late.

AFC East: Pats, Fins, Jets, Bills Probably no Super Bowl repeat, but the Pats are for real. The off-season saw gains at wideout and tight end, which will only help shake Antowain Smith loose. Throw in a more comfortable Brady in a system that's growing with him, too. Defense is basically unchanged, except for Victor Green coming over from the Jets. Pats have a slightly better than average strength of schedule (13th), which helps.

Rickey Williams helps the Dolphins improve, they'll threaten to win the division. The Jets are overrated- one QB is past prime and the other's not ready, and the defense took some serious hits due to the cap. The Bills will stink, but not as bad as you think. The league's best division.

AFC North: Steelers, Browns, Bengals, Ravens This may be the weakest division. The Steelers could be the pro football equivalent of the Twins; so far ahead of the field that they lose focus. The Browns are getting a lot of hype thanks to the D, but still don't know if Tim Couch is ready (and have almost no running game, William Green or no). Bengals get better but need a real QB desperately. Ravens could finish second in the division, there's not much room from there to last, really. An untested QB and cap problems make them a bit of a mystery.

AFC South: Colts, Titans, Jags, Texans Nod to the Colts for their offensive firepower. Even with their poor defense they should be able to handle divisional foes, two of whom are inept (Texans and Jags) and one who can't score regularly (Titans). If Eddie George can get on track the Titans have a chance, especially if Tony Dungy hamstrings that potent O in Indy. If he makes Marcus Pollard an H-back, you know there's trouble.

AFC West: Raiders, Chiefs, Broncos, Bolts The crapshoot division of the NFL. Oakland's dominance hinges on their aging wideouts keeping it together and their flaky kicker getting back in the game. KC has a shot at the division if Priest Holmes has another year like 2001, Trent Green finds his way, and the receiver corps gels. Denver can get back on top if they can keep a running back healthy (and if Clinton Portis can keep his hands on the ball) and if Brian Griese can snap out of his funk. San Diego is screwed. I go with Oakland as I have more faith in them maintaining than in other teams making the step they need.

WILD CARDS: Miami and Tennessee
AFC Champ: Your guess is as good as mine. No one team stands out. I throw in with the Steelers, though. Randle-El adds an element of surprise, complementing Ward and Burress. The Bus gets more running room, too. The D is potent as ever, and Kris Brown is nowhere in sight.

NFC East: Eagles, Giants, Redskins, Cowboys Eagles are clearly the class of the division, solid on all sides of the ball and adding Antonio Freeman will pay off. Giants are kind of like the Titans, good D but flaky O. Shockey is all the rage, but it's the running game that needs attention. Redskins look improved, but I can't see any of the former Gator QBs getting the job done. Perhaps they need to get Jesse Palmer out of the Meadowlands. The Cowboys will struggle, but be a little better than you think, especially if Antiono Bryant matures and gives whoever is under center the added option.

NFC North: Green Bay, Chicago, Minnesota, Detroit Chicago won't be able to repeat last year. They'll do well, but I don't see them besting the Pack. If they do, it'll be thanks to Favre not getting on track with his completely revamped wideout corps. Chicago's D is better, and it was that D that drove the Bears into the playoffs. If you can beat their D, their O may not be able to catch up. Green Bay has the D to stay in a game and an O, thanks to Favre, that can win it. The Vikings are looking rough but may rebound; they are on the cusp of being the NFC's version of Indy. Lots of offensive weapons but a lackluster D. The Lions, well, they only need to get to the start of the NHL season so they can finish in anonimity.

NFC South: Bucs, Saints, Falcons, Panthers Gruden will get the Bucs going, but I wonder if they have any QB who can fully utilize their skill players. Neither Johnson is a world beater, and Shaun King is clearly the odd man out. Saints have a chance at catching the Bucs if Deuce can replace Rickey and the defense gets over losing Glover and Johnson.

Falcons are basically in an extended pre-season for 2003, but Vick will be a difference maker against weaker opponents. The Panthers, if nothing else, reminded me that Rodney Peete was still in the league.

NFC West: Rams, Niners, Cards, Seahawks Rams continue their track show, no big surprises. Niners looked a little out of sorts in the opener, but I liked their defensive fire. They'll need that for their two games with the Rams. Arizona needs to make or break with Jake the Snake. It's not like they don't have other problems- Thomas Jones not panning out and Pat Tillman quitting to join the Army come to mind- but Plummer's rep is bigger than his performance. Another lackluster year could be the end of him with the Cards. The Seahawks, meanwhile, could change leagues with the BC Lions and I don't think people would notice.

WILD CARDS: Chicago, San Francisco
NFC Champ: Everyone's cruising for the Rams-Eagles rematch. I'm going with the Rams in another squeaker.

SUPER BOWL CHAMPS: Steelers win when Stewart, Ward, and Randle-El all wind up in the backfield to run a double reverse option to Tommy Maddox, who is out in the slot. Mike Martz shoots blood from his ears, while Kurt Warner starts to inquire where he can get that Jobu doll from Major League.

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