Last week I put my neck on the line and predicted the outcome of the four wild cards games in the NFL playoffs. Turns out I went 4-0. I'm a genius!

On the other hand, had I put some money where my mouth is, I'd have netted a tidy sum. I'm an idiot!

In any event, this week I move on to the divisonal round. NFC first.

Green Bay at St. Louis I've been a modest fan of the Pack for some time, back when Brett Favre was still a pup and Sterling Sharpe was making grabs all over the field. So I'm a little disposed towards them. Even so, I'd be hard pressed to take them against the Rams.

Yes, the Rams defense is average. However, the Pack's defense isn't much better. The Rams offense is scary. The Pack has Favre and his bag of tricks, and nice running from Ahman Green. Even so, the Rams have fewer things to worry about when Green Bay has the ball than vice versa. If they key Faulk, they risk getting burnt by Isaac Bruce or Torry Holt. Key one of those guys, Faulk swings out of the backfield. And then there's tight end Ernie Conwell, who as the season went on became a favorie of Kurt Warner's.

The Pack can't match that, and will lose, though not get blown out.

Philadelphia at Chicago The Bears, like the Patriots, have many people confused. They're not supposed to be in the playoffs, never mind NFC Central champ and second seed.

The Eagles, meanwhile, were supposed to be here all along. a preseason pick to go deep in the playoffs, they struggled through the NFC East, a sign of either (a) the NFL's legendary parity, or (b) a sign that the Eagles were less ready than people thought.

Both teams come to Soldier Field with hot and cold offenses and sharp defenses. Chicago's got strength at linebacker and the defensive backfield. Philly has a loaded d-line and a tremendous d-backfield. One that can easily handle the anemic Chicago passing offense.

Chicago's bread and butter is rookie RB Anthony Thomas. Where the A Train goes the Bears thou goeth. Philly will have some relief knowing that if their defensive backfield keeps what passes for passing in check, they can stuff 7 or 8 guys on the line to keep Thomas at bay.

Chicago should be able to keep McNabb in better check than the Bucs, but the Eagles' offense is balanced enough to keep the Bears on their toes. They can't afford to overplay the run like the Eagles can.

I'm thinking it'll be a tight game, with the Eagles coming away with an upset.

As for the AFC:

Baltimore at Pittsburgh The Ravens are talking smack again, much like the team from last year. Their defeat of Miami in Miami gives them some room to swagger, even if you get sick of listening to Ray Lewis and Shannon Sharpe (which doesn't take much).

The win over the Dolphins has everyone in Charm City thinking of last year. What they tend to forget is that Miami's offense lived and died on the passing game. A passing game that evaporated when rookie Chris Chambers was scratched from the game with injury. The surprise shouldn't be that the Ravens won, but that their offense actually showed signs of life against a strong Fins defense.

The Steelers possess another great defense, but have an offense that Miami can only dream of. Kordell Stewart can pass again, and he's got two good receivers in Plaxico Burress and Hines Ward. And, of course, there's Jerome Bettis, "The Bus," coming back from a late season injury.

The Ravens and Steelers split this year, the Ravens taking a 13-10 win in week 8 at Heinz Field. The Steelers won 29-23 in week 14 at PSINet Stadium. In both games, a Steelers player was the leading passer, rusher, and receiver. Considering that one week it meant that AMOS ZEREOUE was the game's top rusher, I have to ponder.

Part of me wants the Ravens to win to set up a possible AFC title game at Foxboro. But then I remember that Elvis Grbac is the Baltimore QB. Somewhere, Trent Dilfer is smiling. The Steelers win.

Oakland at New England One of the things that bugged me the most about wild card weekend was how results seemed to validate the early season's conventional wisdom. Philly was a Super Bowl possible who struggled, but won big and is now back in the fold. Oakland puts away the Jets, who beat them at home the week before, and it's time to get Jon Gruden his own suite at the New Orleans Hilton.

Let's get some perspective here. There are guys who've climbed Everest who sucked less wind than the Raiders did in December. They went from challenging for home field advantage throughout the playoffs to having to play last week. That they play in the sad excuse for a conference known as the ACF West was a saving grace; were they in the Central or East the other teams would have smelled the blood in the water.

Now I'm not fully discounting their win last week, it was a solid victory that reminded us all that the Raiders have a potent offense. Jerry Rice and Tim Brown are Hall of Fame locks, Charlie Garner can run the ball, and Rich Gannon is an effective passer.

Consider, though, that the Jets were playing after their third cross-country flight in two weeks. And that their best defender, John Abraham, didn't play most of the game.

Then add in that the Jets were able to move the ball if not at will, then with great positivity. The Jets offense for most of the season looked like Chicago's, mostly running with a smattering of passes mixed in to keep the other team honest. That it was able to march up and down the field last week says something about Oakland's defense. And none of it good.

Not that the Pats are world beaters. Their defense ranks very low statistically. They have a "bend but don't break" philosophy that keeps games close, but (for this year at least) kept them in the win column. Their balanced offense frightens no one, but gets the job done. Antowain Smith can churn yards with the best of them, and Tom Brady is as efficient a passer as Gannon, though with shorter passes to less glamorous wideouts.

I see three things that make me think the Pats will win:

1. Oakland has crappy run defense. You can try to say that Curtis Martin was the reason for the Jets' ability to run last week, but the Raiders finished the year in the bottom third of the league in run defense. If the Pats can run, that will free up their passing game when the d-backs have to play the run.

2. Oakland's offensive strength is the passing game. The Pats' defensive strength is the passing game (to the extent they have a strength). Hall of Famers Rice and Brown against Pro Bowlers Law and Milloy. Younger legs prevail, but someone will get burnt. It's just what happens.

3. A night game. In January. In Foxboro. Oakland isn't tropical, but it's a much more temperate clime, especially at this time of year. Gannon will have Yankee Conference flashbacks.

So there you have it.