09 January 2002

Ok, here are the picks I was working on before lunch. Suffice it to say I was inspired by Jon Couture's picks, but will only pick week by week just in case a player key to his team's chances breaks his face.

NY Jets at Oakland Jets beat Raiders late to get to the playoffs and knock Oakland out of a bye position (and a grateful Patriots Nation thanks you, but still doesn't like you). Can they make it two in a row?

No.

Oakland will have two things going for it: playoff-savvy WR Jerry Rice and the return of kicker Sebastian Janikowski. Rice brings a wealth of experience from the 49ers that goes on top of his continued skill as a pass catcher. Janikowski, assuming he's over the cellulitis problem in his foot, brings better kicking skills than his replacement, Brad Daluiso. Had Janikowski been ready to go last week, I could be calling a Pats-Seahwaks game than this one.

I don't think the Jets will be able to muster the same offensive output as last week. They've been especially anemic since their bye. The only team they put more than 20 points up against (other than the Raiders) were the Colts, not exactly the defensive team of the century. The Raiders are in a 3 game slide, perhaps the last way you want to enter the playoffs, but they've got more tools to play with.

A close game, but ship the Raiders to Foxboro for next week.

Baltimore at Miami The sort of game where all the points may be field goals, safeties, and defensive TDs. Neither team has much of an offense. Both feature a middling QB, a running game that goes in fits and spurts, and a passing game with one dangerous receiver and one or two possession type guys. Both teams can kick, though, so it may be Matt Stover versus Olindo Mare for all the marbles.

Miami's defense is good. Baltimore's is better. Both are top 5 in the league. Miami's secondary will force Elvis Grbac to throw more interceptions. The Ravens' front 7 will make Jay Fiedler very well acquainted with the Pro Player Stadium turf.

This is the best bet for an upset for the weekend, and I'll bite. Ravens win a close one.

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia My initial interest in doing this came from Couture's supposition that the Bucs are going to make it to the NFC title game. That would mean winning not only in St. Louis Speedway next week, but getting out of Philly alive. At the Vet, when you hear cannon fire it's not coming from an in-stadium attraction.

The Bucs have also never won a game where the temperature is below 50 degrees (or something like that). Gametime temp on Saturday will be around 40 degrees. Case closed.

In case that's not enough for you, consider that Philly has one of the best defensive backfields in the league, and Tampa Bay's offense is predicated on getting the ball to Keyshawn Johnson. The Bucs running game is unimpressive, ranked 30th, only above Cleveland. Tampa's vaunted defense has to worry about Donovan McNabb and his happy feet. Thanks for playing, don't let the door hit you where the good Lord split you.

San Francisco at Green Bay Another factoid: Green Bay has apparently never lost a home playoff game. Don't know if that's all-time or just in the modern era, but either way it's damn impressive.

Both teams have offenses that run and throw well. The 49ers throw a little better thanks to Terrell Owens and JJ Stokes, while you'd probably give the edge to the Pack with running (though Garrison Hearst had an outstanding year, especially on a rebuilt ankle).

Defenses are both good, not great. This should be a fun game, with the Pack winning. Jeff Garcia's Grey Cup experience is only worth three-fifths of Brett Favre's Super Bowl experience.

Should this all work out, we'd have Oakland in Foxboro taking on the Pats, Baltimore going back to Heinz to play the Steelers, Philly at Chicago, and the Pack going into the RamDome. Stay tuned.

No comments:

 Book Log Extra: New York Times 100 Best Books of the 21st Century The New York Times  took a break from trying to get Joe Biden to drop out...