Following up on Rutgers, Chris Rosenberg sent along an article from a local paper detailing how the Scarlet Knights can wind up in Glendale playing for the national title. They are:
Step one: win out
The biggest step, as without this nothing else matters. This may also be the toughest step, as Rutgers has to go to Morgantown to take on West Virginia to close the season. They've never beaten West Virginia at home. West Virginia is also on an 11 game winning streak against Rutgers.
Step two: have the loser of Ohio State-Michigan take a tumble in the polls
Probably the next most important step, but also the least predictable given that it's about off the field stuff. The article thinks that the best bet here is to have Michigan win, as the combination of a loss at home and lack of wins over currently-ranked opponents (just Texas; Iowa and Penn State were ranked when they played Ohio State but aren't now) would lower Ohio State in the eyes of the polls.
There's also some talk about not having a re-match in the title game (not sure if it's a lot of talk, saw an article on it on ESPN or Yahoo), so voters may try to do the math to keep it from happening either way.
Step three: USC loses to Cal or UCLA
Certainly possible, but USC gets Cal at home and then has to "travel" to UCLA.
Step four: Notre Dame loses to USC
Also possible, as the game is in L.A. and Notre Dame hasn't won this game since 2001. Alternately, ND could lose to Army this weekend and then beat USC to take both out of the picture. That'd be something.
Step five: Arkansas loses to LSU
Difficult given the way the Razorbacks are playing, but they have to go into Baton Rouge and may be looking ahead a bit to the SEC title game (assuming they don't lose to Mississippi State this weekend and go into the LSU game needing the win to make the title game).
Step six: Arkansas beats Florida in the SEC title game
Thus giving Florida its second loss.
Theoretically, all the other teams that could be undefeated (Boise State) or have one loss (Wisconsin, Louisville, and Wake Forest) would be too far back to catch up. Though I'd have to think a little bit more about Wake - they end the season with two ranked teams (Virginia Tech and Maryland), and (assuming wins over those two) an ACC title game tilt with nationally-ranked Georgia Tech. While none are highly-ranked, that'd be a lot of wins over ranked teams for the computers and voters to consider.
So there it is. It's just that easy, Rutgers.
16 November 2006
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4 comments:
I'm aghast both by how hard it would be for even an undefeated Rutgers team to reach the title game, and by the extent to which the obstacles they face are human voters rather than computers.
I think I'm now rooting for this possibility, if only because I'm sick of hearing about the UM/OSU game. Plus Ali needs a little happiness in her life, being married to Rosenberg and all.
If you're aghast at this, Matt, I'd advise you to not even consider the case of Boise State, who would need some sort of pandemic to see Glendale.
With Rutgers, it is pretty entertaining to see how much love they get from the computers versus the humans. Their computer average puts them second behind Michigan (OSU third), while the humans have them in 7th and 8th, respectively. Using straight RPI also lands Rutgers in second.
And if you're sick of the hype, Greg, I'd suggest not watching ESPN (which I don't think is a problem for you, is it?). They've been running a countdown clock to "Judgement Day." Ugh.
GO BIG BLUE !!!!!!
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