02 February 2002

The time has come, said the Walrus, to put your 10-0 playoff record on the line and pick a winner for the Super Bowl.

Somebody get me a ball gag for the Walrus.

Anyway, with the game being tomorrow, here we go.

New England Patriots v. St. Louis Rams There's not much more one can say about a match-up that's spawned a week's worth of ridiculously detailed coverage. But I'll do my best to pile a few hundred more words on top.

The Rams have a hyperkinetic offense, the NFC's top defense, and a roster that, from top to bottom, is filled with players about whom you can rarely say "he sucks." The Pats have an average offense, an average defense in everything but points allowed (which is the one stat I'd imagine a defense would want to excel), and a roster that reads like part football team, part Federal Witness Protection Program. Part of the reason for that, of course, is that the Pats were expected to stink the NFL up this year, so no national games for them.

The Pats are a two touchdown underdog to the Rams. As has been pointed out only about nine million times since the week started, this Pats team, like the other two that went to the Super Bowl, traveled to New Orleans under big odds to play an NFC juggernaut. Those first two times they lost by the expected margin (or much worse), and the pigskin cognoscienti see history repeating itself.

That's why I'm picking the Patriots to win.

There's no logic to it. I can try to justify the pick with stats and player information (which I'll do in a bit), but the main reason I'm taking them is that the Patriots are the NFL's version of Rasputin. You think they're going to roll over and die, and they just keep on going. Could the Rams be that metaphoric multiple gunshot wounds, poison, and drowning that finally did Rasputin in? Not this week. The Pats will do something to win.

For those seeking rational reasons, I'll give you the following:

1. Over the last 3 seasons, the Rams are 33-1 when they have the better turnover margin. They are 10-11 when the margin is tied or theirs is worse. You can't imagine that the Pats are ignorant of this, and will do everything in their power to swing the game this way. The DBs will play more aggressively, which has the possibility of big plays for the Rams' blazing wideouts, but given the Pats' low turnover rate, I see them getting at least one more than the Rams.

2. The Rams are a bit banged up. They've got a sub starting at one tackle, and All-Universe tackle Orlando Pace hasn't practiced much this week (strained his MCL against the Eagles last week). Az Hakim hurt his ankle in practice, while Issac Bruce had a little groin problem. I think the Pats can exploit the line weakness beter than the receivers (whose injuries are less severe), which may also play into forcing turnovers by making Warner throw when he's not ready.

And let's not forget Kurt Warner's ribs, which are supposedly fine. Should he get his cage rattled and his ribs get re-injured, the field general mantle falls on Jamie Martin. Hmm, perhaps there is someone on the Rams roster who you can say sucks (assuming we have any info to make that judgment about Martin to begin with).

3. The Pats' offensive line is under-appreciated. Matt Light is banged up, but the unit as a whole doesn't get the recognition it should for helping to bring back the running game and protecting whoever is under center. They'll play a role tomorrow.

So there's my "factual" reasons for picking, which, like most of the other games, will probably prove wildly innacurate. But as long as the result is the same, I don't care.

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