Time to display my ignorance and predict the winners of this year's Oscars:

Picture: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Director: Peter Jackson

Much as how the Heisman can sometimes go to a player to celebrate a career rather than a single season, awards going here would really be for the entire trilogy. The one caveat here is that they could split the thing and give the Best Director award to Clint Eastwood for Mystic River. Splitting's all the rage lately (3 of the last 5 years, including last year), so we'll see.

Actor: Bill Murray

Now that's a line I'd never imagine I'd type. I'm not really confident about this one - look at how many nods Robin Williams had to get before winning - but I'm thinking that the Oscar folks are a little too conservative to go with Depp (based on the role and perhaps lingering dismay over those US=puppy comments) and a little too stuffy to go with Sean Penn given that he doesn't attend these sorts of things. That being said, Penn's like my 1a choice here. But I would like to see Murray win this. That'd be cool.

Actress: Charlize Theron

Now that's another line I'd never imagine I'd type. Who'd think that the girl who falls in love with her dentist in That Thing You Do would win an Oscar for playing a serial killer? But it's probably the closest thing to a lock this year. Crazy!

Supporting Actor: Tim Robbins

This would never have happened last year, what with all the war hoopla and Robbins being a communist or something (then again, Michael Moore still won an Oscar in 2003...), but with things being less heated and Oscar voters looking for a way to honor Mystic River may go with him. If they suck it up and go with Sean Penn... maybe Alec Baldwin finally gets to tell his wife how to go about polishing her statue? Don't know. I'm going to stick with Robbins.

Supporting Actress: Shohreh Aghdashloo

You've never heard of her, even if you are one of the few people who saw The House of Sand and Fog. But this is the category where the double obscurity whammy works in your favor. We've had a couple years in a row with "normal" winners (Catherine Zeta-Jones for Chicago and Jennifer Connelly for A Beautiful Mind), so it's time for the pendulum to go the other way. Which is a pity for Renee Zellweger. Sadly, this is like the first time in five years that Julianne Moore isn't nominated; I think this is the sort of year she'd finally win. (OK, to be fair, last year was the first time since 2000 she'd been nominated, but she was nominated twice).

And now the rest of the picks, with minimal content given that I'm especially pulling them out of my ass now (and while I know most of these awards go to people, I'm going to just give movie titles, sorry):

Adapted Screenplay: Mystic River
Original Screenplay: Lost in Translation
Cinematography: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World (No LOTR nod. Huh.)
Art Direction: Girl With a Pearl Earring (OK, I chose it because the movie is about art. I'm an idiot.)
Costume Design: Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Sound: Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Editing: Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Sound Editing: Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (Their token award.)
Visual Effects: Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Make Up: Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Original Song: Sting, "You Will Be My Ain True Love" from Cold Mountain

I have to stop to comment here. If a song from Cold Mountain has to win, I'd prefer it to be the other one only because Elvis Costello is involved. I know many people will be pulling for the song from A Mighty Wind, even if the movie was mildly disappointing in comparison to Christopher Guest's other recent work. But I'll go with Sting, even if he's now more like Phil Collins than Bob Dylan (both of whom, BTW, have won in this category in the last 5 years).

Original Score: Danny Elfman, Big Fish
Animated Short: Destino (It took 60 years to make and involved Dali. How can it lose?)
Live Action Short: Two Soldiers
Short Documentary: Chernobyl Heart
Feature Documentary: Capturing the Friedmans
Foreign Language: Zelary
Animated Feature: Finding Nemo (A popular choice which will enrage fill buffs who are pulling for Les Triplettes de Belleville.)