Without waiting for the actual show, I'm going to predict that Clay Aiken will be your new American Idol when all is said and done tomorrow. I've got two reasons for this, one offered by a co-worker, the other my own.

1. Clay has never been in an elimination group. Kelly Clarkson was never in an elimination group. Kelly Clarkson was named American Idol. Therefore, Clay will be named American Idol. (That's from the co-worker)

2. My reason is what I call the Liberace Theory. There was a time, before the palimony suit and the Batman villainy, when Liberace was a hot draw, both on stage and on TV (OK, he did pretty well even after the Batman and palimony things). The cornerstone of his fan base, apparently drawn by his mix of classical and popular music, his flashy clothes and jewelry, and those candelabras, were older women.

My guess, from a very small statistical sample (around a half dozen) is that moms have a similar attraction to Clay. Don't know if it's his stagey delivery, his non-threatening looks, or the love he displays for his mother, but there's a storeroom of votes to be tapped in the moms whose kids are watching the program. My guess is that while the kids are texting their votes in, mom is on the bedroom phone working speed dial.

Anyway, that's my theory, and I'm sticking with it.